Recent wild fluctuations in the Nifty 50 index on weekly expiry days have sparked discussions among derivatives traders regarding potential manipulation by a consortium of high frequency trading (HFT) entities. These sharp movements coincidentally occurred on Thursdays, aligning with the expiration of weekly Nifty options. The manipulated sharp swings on both occasions happened to be on a Thursday, which is the expiry day for weekly Nifty options. This is a strategic move as speculators can make huge money by buying cheap Nifty options. The first swing was on April 18, 2024. The Nifty was stable around 22,300 with two hours left in the session, when it suddenly nosedived 200 points in 30 seconds. Put options buyers made enormous profits here.
In the second instance on May 16, 2024, the Nifty was trading flat to lower over the previous close for much of the session. But in the last 45 minutes, the index rallied over 200 points. Here buyers of Nifty call 22300 call options made huge money. Same is done in case of Bank Nifty on Wednesday expiry.
Derivative traders have put forward two main theories. One suggests that HFTs, also known as quant firms, utilize advanced algorithms to detect and trigger stop losses of other traders by executing large buy or sell orders. This activity reportedly initiates a cycle of short covering, briefly spiking options prices—a phenomenon humorously referred to as ‘injections’ in trading circles due to their distinctive price chart patterns.
Another theory gaining traction alleges collusion among certain HFTs to manipulate key components of the Nifty index. It is speculated that these firms exploit their technological capabilities to influence index movements, particularly to profit from options contracts tied to Nifty’s fluctuations.
Evidence supporting these theories includes unusual trading patterns observed during recent market events. For instance, significant surges in options volumes and prices, notably within short timeframes and amid sideways market conditions, have raised suspicions among market observers.
Moreover, concerns have been raised about potential circumvention of market safeguards such as the NSE’s Limit Price Protection mechanism. This mechanism is designed to regulate intra-day price swings in options, but there are indications that sophisticated traders may have found ways to manipulate these controls.
Even index heavyweight stocks can be moved with a few hundred crores of margin money. With Rs 300-500 crore of margin money, you can move and manipulate even the heaviest index stocks between 0.5-1.0 percent. This is how index is managed. You will frequently observe that when Nifty is down, speculators often use Reliance to move index up and there is always sudden sharp move.
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